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World Development Report 2010

This blog is hosted by the authors of the World Bank's upcoming World Development Report 2010, "Development in a Changing Climate". It is a forum to get broad-based input on fundamental questions relating to climate change and development. Find out more »

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Making Stimulus Packages Green

The financial meltdown dominates agendas across the world today, in the wake of two other recent shocks--high food prices and energy price volatility--that have particularly affected many developing countries. Yet, even in a time when countries are preoccupied by pressing economic problems, we cannot afford to take our eye off the ball of another emerging crisis---global warming caused by climate change. Every crisis is an opportunity. With the right handling, we could simultaneously solve the current financial crisis and prevent the emerging climate change crisis.

What happens when your wealth disappears?

child-cattle.jpgThe latest data on home prices in the US is pretty dismal. According to the Case –Schiller index, home prices fell by 18.5 % from December 2007 to December 2008 – the largest drop in record. Add the jump in unemployment figures in recent months and we have a bleak outlook.

But what do the housing and labor market in the US have to do with the changing climate? Nothing, at first glance. But the sudden loss in wealth and income is similar to what other asset owners experience in less fortunate parts of the world, where climate change is a threat to well being. Cattle herders and farmers who depend on rainfall often experience a dramatic fall in their assets –typically bullocks or goats- after a drought. The sudden lack of resources when rainfall is low forces them to sell their surviving cattle, pushing their prices down and sending whole communities into destitution.

Blogging for pro-poor climate adaptation series I: Nailing down pro-poor adaptation

[Originally posted at the Development Marketplace Blog]

rasmus(1).pngWe hear that climate changes – ongoing and those to come – are hitting the poor the hardest and the soonest. So what can we do about that?

Well, adapting to climate change is such an abstract and wide-reaching concept I find it sometimes hard to nail down. How do you actually adapt, especially if you are poor and struggling to put food on the table and send your children to school? I find myself wondering what are the ideas that can help poor people cope with harsh weather?

I can envision France crafting emergency plans for better coping with heat waves such as the one that killed tens of thousands of elderly stuck in city apartments without air conditioning in a recent summer. But I have been struggling to imagine what the Bangladeshis can do, realistically, against the flooding and cyclones that hit them more and harder?

It's the model, stupid!

“The essential problem is that our models – both risk models and econometric models – as complex as they have become, are still too simple to capture the full array of governing variables that drive global economic reality.[...] But risk management can never reach perfection. It will eventually fail and a disturbing reality will be laid bare, prompting an unexpected and sharp discontinuous response..”
 Alan Greenspan, former Governor of the US Federal Reserve, writing in the "Opinion" column of the FTMarch 16 2008

In my backyard, or not—but is that really the question?

CC6.jpegFor years scientists have argued that in order to grab the public’s attention to global warming, citizens must be told how the towns, regions and communities in which they and their children live will be affected. Information on local level impacts – the argument runs – makes climate change “real” and should therefore be the cornerstone of public support for mitigation.

Cities on the rise?

The developing world is rapidly urbanizing, as a previous World Development Report noted. Low and middle-income nations are home to three quarters of the world’s urban population. Urban areas are likely to absorb almost all of the world’s population increase over the next two decades. The most populous urban areas tend to concentrate in coastal zones--China and India alone have more than a quarter of the world’s urban population and the world’s largest population living in low-lying coastal zones. Even Africa, generally considered a rural continent, has two-fifths of its population in urban areas, and a large concentration of coastal cities.

Innovative adaptation goes beyond “good development”

CC5.jpgAdaptation involves both preparations and responses to climate change impacts. But how does it differ from simply carrying out "good development"? In many ways, adaptation is good development, at least up to a certain degree of climate change. Sustainable development, if achieved, makes society more resilient to climate stresses and better able to respond to climate impacts. However, one of the main arguments we will make in the next World Development Report is that climate change will challenge the current development paradigm.

The difference between adaptation and "good development" begins to show once the magnitude of warming increases beyond a few degrees. The warmer the world, the more innovative we will need to become in our adaptation approaches, as the chances of crossing critical ecological, physical, and social thresholds increase. The world, our environment, and our surroundings as we know them, will be starkly different from what we are used to.

An expensive band-aid?

PBS recently ran a Frontline documentary entitled “Heat”, on climate change. A section of the movie describes the status of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in the US, a technology that both the IPCC and the IEA consider necessary to achieve emissions reduction. I note that no tests have been run so far in the US to verify the technical feasibility, economic viability and safety of this option. Purely from the technical point of view, the task could be feasible, although extremely challenging. It’s the idea of storing huge amounts of CO2 underground or in the deep seas (less likely) that makes me doubtful. CO2 will need to be sealed away in carefully selected sites, but safety issues are only part of the picture.

How to hold back the ocean?

CC4.jpgSea-level rise is not a phenomenon of increasing frequency, but rather increasing magnitude in a persistent and continuous way. The effect of climate change is most palpably felt in small, low-lying island states such as Panza Island, the southernmost island off Pemba in Tanzania.  Farming and fishing are the main means of livelihood. Significant parts of the island, especially the lower elevation southeastern side, are inundated by seawater bimonthly, during the spring cycles and most prominently during the diurnal flood tides. The local residents report up to four feet of water in some areas, which have only become vulnerable in the past year. Previously agricultural land can no longer be farmed. The area near the local school has been flooding for the past 15 years. Salt water has intruded into all the wells on the island, so drinking water has to now be piped in from a neighboring island.

The National Adaptation Programmes of Action

The National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) are the most prominent national efforts in the least developed countries (LDCs) to identify priority areas for climate change adaptation. Now that most of the NAPAs have been completed (38 out of 48), it is time to ask if they matter. 

The NAPAs were completed at a price tag of near 10 million dollars for preparation and another anticipated 2 billion for implementation. It might appear they are a golden opportunity for the developed world to show that it is serious about supporting adaptation in vulnerable countries. But the NAPA reports continue to sit on the UNFCCC’s website, available to anyone to read but with little prospects of attracting funds for implementation – or so think many who participated in the NAPA process! 

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